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Playing with Fish-Vary Your Play

Fish are weak, unknowledgeable opponents that require a different strategy than knowledgeable opponents.
They’re the source of most of your profit, so you must locate them, get in their game and preferably put them on your right. Many players fear getting into games with great players, but they are approaching the “game selection” calculation from the wrong perspective. Assuming you play reasonably well, the good players will take little in edge from you, but a fish will likely over-compensate for any edge loss in a big way by providing a large edge in numerous situations.
 
Once you have him in your game, you need to size up his tendencies. Is he a passive fish, an aggressive fish, is he intimidated by the game and folding too much, or is he an uncertain soul that is paying everybody off? Once you determine his tendencies, determine what counter-strategies to apply. Do you want to bluff more, bet more, bet larger, etc? Think about how each fish’s weaknesses can be exploited.
Because your edge is larger when fish are in the pot, you can widen your range against the fish. That said, don’t overcompensate and become a fish yourself. Keep in mind the other players in the pot and those yet to act. You don’t want to put yourself in significant negative equity situations to our other opponents.
Most importantly, don’t tap the aquarium, it scares the fish. I constantly see players belittle poor play. It’s no way to treat your customers!! It’s both bad for business and classless manners, also.

The Gap Concept, How it Plays and How to Use It

 
Conventional wisdom states that you need a better hand to call a raise than to raise yourself. It’s called the “Gap Theory”. The theory is that to profitably call the raise, your hand must play well against the range of hands which your opponent may hold. And many of the hands you’d raise with don’t perform well against a standard raising range.
 
Additionally, calling creates an assumption of risk from players yet to act, further weakening your holding. So,all else being equal, it’s generally true that you must have a better hand to call a raise with than you would raise with yourself.
 
For example, a tight player raises upfront, indicating a strong range and you hold KJ in the cutoff, a fold is in order. But had it passed to you, you would have an easy raise.
 
But your holding isn’t the only edge you can hold over an opponent. Your ability to play your hand, the strength of your opponent’s range, the texture of players yet to  act and position are also very important factors. You must incorporate all those elements into your decision.
 
So, while it often does take a stronger hand to call a raise than raise with yourself, consider all elements of the situation. Is there a way to increase your equity? Are there features of your opponent’s play that you can exploit? Are you considering all the risks?
 
Don’t just play by set guidelines; make sure you think through all the possibilities.
And make your best decision.

Implied Odds/Reverse Odds

Implied Odds/Reverse Implied Odds
 
The term is often used, but many don’t understand its meaning. Implied odds are the positive expectation you can get from a hand’s future action.
 
If you hold a small wired pair, you can pre-flop without getting the current pot odds of approximately 7-1 odds of flopping a set because you know that if you flop a set, you are likely to have additional positive equity bets on future streets, making your call profitable. How short of a price you can effectively take depends upon your ability to acquire future positive equity action to make up for the current shortfall.
 
Reverse implied odds is the reverse. They generally occur when you hold a mediocre hand that has greater propensity to acquire negative equity rather than positive equity in the future. Examples of reverse implied odds might be when your hand has little chance of improving, an you read your opponent to be liable to have a hand that’s more likely to extract equity from you than the converse. You might be already beat, not be able to obtain action when your hand is good, drawing to a loser, against an opponent who will extract action when his hand is good though not when he is beat, etc.
 
When you hold a drawing hand with implied odds, you benefit from your potential future action. When your holdings overall edge is more likely to be disadvantaged by future action, you’re in a reverse odds situation.
 
So don’t quantify your hand by the odds that is currently good. Quantify it by the blended average of what you should win/lose should you play your hand forward. Obviously, there are unknowns as you can never be sure what your opponent will do. But by repeatedly doing these calculations, even when you’re not in a pot, you’ll get a good feel for the approximate odds.
An when the odds aren’t right, don’t continue.

Stack Size Explained

Effective Stack Sizes Explained
 
Your effective stack size, the amount of the smaller stack in a heads-up pot, dictates what strategy you should pursue.
An example is : If you have $1,000 and your opponent has $600, your effective stack size is $600, the amount both you and your opponent(s) can legitimately bet on any given hand. Knowing how you should adjust your strategy based on stack sizes is an important component of no-limit poker.
If the effective stack sizes are short (40BB or less), the strength of your hand increases in importance, and the opportunities to “outplay” your opponent decrease. That’s because a player can push in for a small amount and not face the threat of future large bets. So, when possessing, or your opponent possesses a short stack, you generally need to play stronger hands pre-flop, and select high equity opportunities post-flop.
Conversely, large effective stack sizes allow for playing weaker hands and making more bluffs. That’s because the “implied odds” of making a large hand and getting a hefty payoff increase the value of your hand.

How to Bet

How to Bet-Size your Bluffs?
 
Trying to make a better hand fold?
 
If so, what portion of his range will he fold to what size bet? Having a good feel of this situation will prevent you from taking on any unnecessary risks that will cost you money.
 
It takes a different size bet to fold his top pair range than his “air” range. And the risk of betting a larger amount to fold his better hands may not be worth the extra money wagered if it doesn’t fold enough of range to make it EV positive.
However, it may still be correct to bet a smaller amount to fold his “air” range. This can be the case when a lot of draws are present, you hold a hand with little to no showdown value and a small bet will fold his “air.”
When you’re considering a bluff, think about what hands in your opponents range he will fold? What amount bet will it take him to fold? Compare your opponents folding range. Is “air” a large portion of that range? Is it worth risking the extra money to fold the few additional hands that he may call with?
And don’t forget to keep a straight face!

Good Times Equals Good Money

“Time equals money” goes the old saying. And it’s true that we exchange our time for money. But with poker our “hourly rate” isn’t a constant. Games have varying degrees of value, both in limit size and quality of opponents.  Additionally, our edge varies with our current abilities.  

  It’s crucial to realize how much these differences affect our bottom line. We play in bad games because we’re stuck. We leave good games because we don’t feel good about blowing back wins. We play when we’re tired, unfocused or emotionally unbalanced for all sorts of reasons. And that time doesn’t equal money; that time equals a waste of time at best. At worst, it’s a quick way to vacationing in Tap City.

So, when you’re playing, continuously evaluate how you’re performing, and how the game is comparative to that performance. If you’ve got a big edge, extend your play. If you don’t, can you improve the situation by moving to a better game, or executing a mental makeover? Or, are you better off leaving and coming back to fight another time?

How you treat these situations may very well determine how you’ll do over time in poker. I’ve seen many a great player, playing two days straight, thinking they can still perform, and losing equity with every minute of play. Furthermore, these types of players tend to burn out, further decreasing their propensity to survive the “test of time.”

So, when you’re playing, make sure you’re putting in “good time.” Time in which you’re playing your best, against inferior competition. If you do that, the “good money” will come!

Choosing Your Ground

It’s not about how well you play the game, or even about how well your opponents play the game. It’s about the spread of ability between you and your opponents.
 
Poker’s soul is founded on the principle that one decision has a mathematical advantage over other alternatives. It’s called “edge”. It’s an critically important concept to keep in mind for your entire poker career. When you have an edge over the field larger than your playing costs, you’ll win over time. If you don’t, you’ll continually be digging into your pockets. 
 
The reason you can win over time at poker is that you can select the times to gamble. Hands that have an edge you can push to their maximum potential. Hands that have the worst of it, you can fold. The larger your edge, the greater the equity of your holding. It’s a relative thing!
 
The same concept applies to the game as a whole. You can select your opposition. You can choose not to play when your edge is not up to your standards. And you can choose to push your edges to their maximum when the situation is ripe. 
 
In my Card Player columns I’ve often written that the recurring sum of volume times net edge equals expectation, and over time your expectation will equal your nominal earn. What that means is that the expectation from each independent bet wagered, either positive or negative, added into a recurring field will equal your win or loss rate over the course of time. This is an important concept to understand, and is the essence of the game.
 
Yes, with larger games you wager more money, but is your edge as high as in the lower game? Does the increased amount wagered make up for the loss in edge of a tougher and higher game? Is the increased variance, the greater required effort, the higher stress, worth the extra money? If it is, play. If not, pass. 
 
Choose your ground. Select games in which you have an edge. Be real now. Are you really as good as you like to think you are? Is the edge large enough to make playing worth your while? Yes, this is all predatory, but that’s the nature of poker. And those who play the game understand that upfront. So, no need to feel bad about it. Nobody is forcing anyone to play.
 
It’s the most important concept in poker!

Odds

Odds Are, You Need to Know Them!

A friend playing in a $1-2 NLH game at the Venetian folded an open-ended straight draw for a $65 all-in bet in a $165 pot. Another opponent yet to act had $80 left, though he had raised pre-flop and checked. The board was Tc-9c-4d, and my friend held the QhJh. The way the hand had played made it unlikely an opponent had a flush draw. Also, a queen or jack also might have been good. Getting over 2-1/2 to 1current odds when he was 2-1 against making just the straight, my friend’s fold was terrible.
If you want to play poker well, you need to be able to calculate odds, current odds, “hot and cold” odds and implied ones. If you can’t determine your odds, you’ll make serious errors.
Current odds are the odds that you currently face. If its $30 to call and the pot is $100, your current odds are 100-30 or 3-1/3 to 1.
Hot and Cold odds are the odds your hand will win if either you or your opponent(s) are all-in. Devices such as the online CardPlayer Calculator calculate the odds of how hands fare mathematically against each other.
Implied odds generally are “best guess estimates” of how future bets will impact the price of a given play. If you are currently receiving 3-1 odds on a call, you need to determine how future betting will affect your current price. Implied odds can affect your hand either positively or negatively, depending upon whether you have an edge in the future betting.
When assessing odds, you should calculate/estimate the “effective odds” of the whole equation. If there are multiple streets, you should calculate your odds based on getting to the river and the likelihood of all bets. That said, sometimes you can correctly call only one street, but you must adjust your odds for only that street’s card(s), and not miscalculate by comparing your current odds to the chances you will complete the hand to the river.
Additionally, don’t get confused by the fact that 1 in 3 is the same as 2-1. Different writers phrase odds/ratios using different terminology that is easy to confuse.
Whenever I play, I’m always aware of my current price and know how much money is in the pot. I make adjustments based on any assumptions of risk I may take, such as someone’s raising behind. I then think about my implied odds. Will my hand provide me future value? Or will I have to pay more on the turn? How is the hand likely to play out? A lot of that is “best guess estimates,” but over time and lots of practice, I’ve learned to be somewhat accurate. By calculating my odds in this manner, I acquire a good feel for what is mathematically correct and create better decisions for myself.
This is an oversimplified and short explanation. Learning how to calculate the odds is a necessary fundamental for developing a “feel” of what is mathematically correct. Doug Hull of Red Chip Poker wrote a book, “The Poker Workbook for Math Geeks” that is an illustrated, easy to follow and understand math guide strictly for poker. I recommend it to everyone who needs to improve their poker math. You can get it at http://www.ThreeBarrelBluff.com .
Happy Calculating

Too Predictable

Adjusting to Player Types

My previous poker tips were fundamentals, this tip group is more advanced and involves hand reading skills and player reads. Quick tips such as these tend to lump players into stereotypical modes that don’t always fit. So while these plays are good guidelines, there’re not meant to be selected in stone. Nuances arise within players and situations for which additional adjustments should be made.

Too Predictable

Tip #1-Play lots of hands against these players like they were playing their cards face-up. Since you can read them very effectively, you’re going to be able to consistently outplay them. Once again, be aware of and take into account other players in the pot and those to act after you.

Tip #2-These are good players to focus on as once you have a good read on their thinking, you will make accurate high-edge plays against them. So, calculate their reactions and design plays accordingly.

Tip #3-Sit to their left. Your edge on these players is large and you want to be able to make isolation plays and many creative plays against them. Sitting to their left will increase the number of plays you can make against them, many of which are going to be high-edge.

Tip #4-If their predictability is a function of tells. Keep it your secret. Don’t tell others and DEFINITELY don’t tell them!

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